2007 Girls Basketball Sectional Tournament Preview:  Lake Central Lady Indians A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith (02-03-2007)

Class (4A) Lake Central Indians (7-12)
Sectional titles (13) last in 1998
Regionals (4) last in 1998
Semistate (3) last in 1998
State titles (1) 1994

Class 4A at EAST CHICAGO (CST)
2/6 (Tu) Munster [16-6] at Gary West Side [15-5]
2/6 (Tu) Highland [16-5] at LAKE CENTRAL [7-13]
2/9 (F) Munster/West Side vs. Highland/LC
2/9 (F) LOWELL [4-15] vs. East Chicago [2-18]
2/10 (S) Sectional championship game - 7:30 p.m.

Class 4A at Portage (CST)
2/6 (Tu) Portage [12-8] vs. CROWN POINT [10-9] 6 p.m.
2/6 (Tu) Chesterton [7-12] vs. MERRILLVILLE [14-5]
2/9 (F) Portage/CP vs. Chesterton/MERRILLVILLE - 6 p.m.
2/9 (F) Valparaiso [6-13] vs. Hobart [6-13]
2/10 (S) Sectional championship game - 7:30 p.m.

Class 4A at (SB) Washington (EST)
2/6 (Tu) South Bend Clay [13-9] vs. Michigan City [20-1] 6 p.m.
2/6 (Tu) South Bend Washington [21-1] vs. South Bend Adams [7-12]
2/9 (F) Clay/MC vs. Washington - 6 p.m.
2/9 (F) South Bend Riley [6-16] vs. LaPorte [10-9]
2/10 (S) Sectional championship game - 7:30 p.m.

Class 4A at Concord (EST)
2/6 (Tu) Elkhart Central [7-13] vs. Mishawaka [3-17] 6 p.m.
2/6 (Tu) Goshen [11-9] vs. Penn [14-6]
2/9 (F) Elkhart Central/ Mishawaka vs. Goshen/Penn - 6 p.m.
2/9 (F) Elkhart Memorial [17-5] vs. Concord [2-19]
2/10 (S) Sectional championship game - 7:30 p.m.

Class 4A at Valparaiso Regional (CST)
2/17 (S) EC champ vs. Goshen champ - 11 a.m.
2/17 (S) Riley champ vs. Portage champ - 1 p.m.
2/17 (S) 4A Regional championship game - 7 p.m.

Strengths: Rebounding.  Janelle Kapelinski and Ashley Michalski give LC a good front line.  Depth.  Coach Tim Powers has 10 players he can use.  This team has more experience than any other in this sectional.

Weaknesses:  Offense. It's been surprisingly poor and it's not obvious why.  The veteran backcourt has not played as well as it did in 2006, but there's still time.  LC is 2-5 in games decided by five points or less and that may have worked on their confidence.

Outlook:  Not as bad as it seems.  The Indians' record is poor, but the schedule has been very tough.  They have four losses to top-10 teams.  LC gets a home game because of the stipulation (that sectional asked for) that allows Tuesday quarterfinal games to be played on home sites.  LC needs their post players to out-rebound the opposition.  It's almost that simple.  Few teams shoot well in sectional play.  Ashley Michalski, Jamie Auer and Janelle Kapelinski must get position on Highland's front line.

Lake Central's Key Players:

1. Allison Aguilera - 5-5 junior point guard

Aguilera has not been the floor leader I thought she'd be this year, but she is a two-year starter and the time is now.  Her job is not to score, but to limit LC turnovers against the pressing defenses of Gary West Side and Munster.  Aguilera has to aggressively attack the basket and draw the defense to her, but only when it's time.  LC wants a slow paced game.


2. Janelle Kapelinski -  5-10 senior forward

Playoff games are all about missed shots and rebounding and here's another two-year starter who can hit the boards.  Kapelinski's rebound average is down now, but she averaged eight per game in 2006.  Kapelinski is very athletic and she is capable of 10 points and 10 rebounds per game next week.


3. Jenny Britton -  5-5 senior guard

LC has to get the ball to Britton (11.7 per game) in positions where she can score.  LC must establish an inside attack so defenders will leave the Indian's best outside shooter.  The LC senior is 35 of 82 from three point range.  Britton needs about 15 points a game for LC to win the sectional, but she doesn't often create her own shot, so her teammates have to set her up.


WHAT WILL HAPPEN:  Lake Central is in the wrong sectional.  They defeated every team except Hobart in Class 4A Sectional 2.  Trouble is, the Indians are assigned to Class 4A Sectional 1 and they lost to three of those teams:  Munster, Highland and East Chicago.

This isn't a bad draw for LC.  They face a Highland team that has improved since LC defeated them 41-40 in November.  But LC has beaten Highland and LC has played a significantly tougher schedule.

Understand that LC will play only six games against team with records of under .500 and they are 0-4 against top-15 teams Michigan City, Carmel and Hamilton Southeastern.  LC has lost eight times by 10 points or less, twice by two points and the Indians have lost the last two games by one point.  The prep basketball world revolves around strength of schedule.  I like the size of Lake Central with 6-1 Jamie Auer and 6-1 Ashley Michalski, a good shot-blocker and Kapelinski.  In the post-season the game slows and height is accentuated.

I still like the backcourt of Aguilera and Britton along with sophomore Krystal Coleman.  Here's where Lake Central steps to the front and makes up with what, for them, has been a bad season.  You just can't go by won-loss records.  The Indians will not see anyone here who is as good as Michigan City (21-1), Southeastern (22-0) or Carmel (16-4).  If the Munster, Gary West Side quarterfinal winner falters, LC wins the whole thing here.

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Revised: February 03, 2007 .